Model outputs: What will we see?
Realizing the Canada1Water vision
With Canada1Water approaching the finish line, focus is shifting from inputs to outputs. Aquanty’s Steve Frey explains what the model will generate and how its projections might be used.
WHAT C1W OUTPUTS WILL LOOK LIKE - This prototype screen capture shows how the C1W simulation will visualize forecasted conditions such as depth to groundwater.
Most discussions about Canada1Water (C1W) have so far centred on the myriad of data sources that have gone into its continental-scale simulation of the country’s hydrologic system. But once the integrated model is finished running in Aquanty’s HydroGeoSphere™ engine, what kinds of outputs will be available?
“To put it simply, what we’re going to see is how hydrologic conditions and surface–subsurface water movements are predicted to change across the country over the next 75 years,” says Frey.
That includes projections for surface water flow rates, soil moisture levels and groundwater levels; moisture exchanges between surface water, soils and groundwater; and evaporation and transpiration into the atmosphere. Unlike conventional models that tend to focus on a single component or local area, C1W’s outputs are holistic.
“The model gives a comprehensive, complete view of longer-term trends from coast to coast to coast,” says Frey. “You can zoom in on a region to see model predictions of how groundwater is going to change in the North or if the Prairies will be drier than elsewhere, for example, but you get that in the context of a complete national view.”
“Any business or community that depends on water supplies will have science-based insight on mid- and end-century water resources conditions available to support their decision making.”
AN ABUNDANCE OF USES
Local governments, community organizations, policymakers at all levels, industry leaders, researchers and others will be able to use the model outputs to guide decisions for the future.
“Say you live in a community that relies on groundwater,” Frey says, “and Canada1Water shows that, 50 years down the road, it looks like you’re going to have some water stress. You can start taking remedial action now, before there’s a crisis.”
That remedial action could run the gamut from arranging new water supplies to implementing managed aquifer recharge initiatives to replenish groundwater levels. Communities might also make land-management choices to preserve wetlands and other water-holding sites, or to limit tree-clearing so forests can facilitate groundwater recharge.
The model outputs will also equip businesses to make better-informed long-term plans.
“Planning horizons for companies in extractive industries like oil and gas tend to be a half-century or more just because of the scope and scale of what they do,” says Frey. “The model supports those timeframes by looking out to the end of this century with a much more constrained assessment of water resource availability relative to other data sources, which for many parts of the country are currently non-existent.”
Steve Frey is the director of research services at Aquanty and co-principal investigator on Canada1Water.
Frey says logistics companies serving the North provide another example of industrial uses for Canada1Water. The model outputs will allow them to plan around future accessibility so goods and materials can continue to get to where they’re needed.
“Any business or community that depends on water supplies will have science-based insight on mid- and end-century water resources conditions available to support their decision making” says Frey.
CYCLES ACROSS THE SEASONS
C1W also provides seasonal perspective on how surface water, soil moisture and groundwater storage volumes will change over time. This is important in Canada, where many seasonal influences affect hydrologic behaviour.
“The model provides a state-of-the-art prediction of the kinds of shifts we expect to see in seasonal behavior,” Frey says.
He also adds that because C1W accounts for regional climate factors, it has the potential to break down water-related climate change risks on a local scale.
“Southern Ontario and the Prairies are fairly well studied, for example, but there are parts of the country that have never been looked at,” Frey says. “Canada1Water will be able to help inform on climate risks to water resources anywhere across the country.”