CBC News - Why winter storms are becoming bigger and badder around the Great Lakes — and what it means for those at risk
Click here to read the article on CBC News
This new CBC News article explains how winter storms are becoming an increasing risk to people living in the Great Lakes region and why it is only going to get worse. In December 2022, large portions of Ontario saw dramatic snowfall and storm conditions that prevented residents from leaving their homes. This posed a major threat to unhoused people who struggle to remain warm in freezing conditions; and this storm hit harder and faster than anyone had anticipated.
The magnitude and intensity of this storm can be partly attributed to the regional climatic impact of large bodies of water - known as the lake effect. As the Great Lakes are home to 20% of the world’s freshwater and are the largest freshwater lake system in the world, they potentially represent the single largest area impacted by the lake effect on regional climate. The lake effect occurs when cold air moves over warm bodies of water and picks up moisture. When this air rises, cools and is pushed over land precipitation forms, and areas closest to the lakes will see the largest impacts. High intensity storms have always been impacted by the lake effect, but these high intensity events are becoming more frequent. Climate change is one driving factor behind this increasing storm intensity, as lakes remain warmer through the winter and have a lower chance of freezing.
Global-scale climate models rarely have the resolution to incorporate lake effects and predict the impact of the lakes and how they impact regional weather and climate patterns. However, regionally downscaled climate models are a great opportunity to incorporate the lake effect.
For example, the Canada1Water project is studying the impact of lake effects on the three largest North American lake regions: the Great Lakes; Lakes Winnipeg & Winnipegosis; and the Great Bear Lake/Great Slave Lake/Lake Athabasca (GSBLA) system. The lake effect in these regions is being investigated using three different lake models.
Click here to read a progress report on C1W’s lake effect modelling
This could take away the element of surprise for the residents and policy makers of these regions. People’s lives are at stake and getting caught in a storm completely unprepared is far from ideal. Considering the increasing frequency of these intense winter storms, this is a pressing concern and having a continental scale modelling framework that incorporates regional lake effects will help all Canadians to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Click here to read the article on CBC News
“As the climate warms, we’re going to have ever warmer lake temperatures and less ice cover. That’s going to create an opportunity for more evaporation of water into the overlying air as cold air moves across. That is an ideal setup for Lake effect snow.”
“Both Wright and Burnett made it clear that if temperatures continue to climb, after a few decades, we may not see the cold air necessary to generate snow — leaving us with intense lake effect rainstorms instead.”
Lake Effect Snow Formation (John Sauder/CBC)
“It was insane,” Oni said. “The snow came out of nowhere and so nobody was really, like, prepared for it. Usually everyone prepares during the year or whatever, prepares whatever they have to prepare. But nobody was ready. There were like no jackets … It was bad.”